Could AI Agents Cut Apple Out of the Checkout? Analyst Flags Meta’s Muse Threat as a potential point of friction for Apple Inc.’s lucrative Services division. As artificial intelligence evolves from passive conversational tools to autonomous systems capable of executing transactions, Wall Street is beginning to evaluate how agentic platforms might alter consumer spending habits. Bank of America recently warned that upcoming autonomous AI agents could transact directly for users, effectively routing spending outside traditional gatekept environments like the Apple App Store.
What Changed
The debate gained momentum following a warning from Bank of America analysts regarding the trajectory of agentic AI. Traders on CNBC’s ‘Fast Money’ program discussed whether Meta Platforms Inc.’s Muse could pressure Apple’s Services business model by capturing digital commerce before it ever touches an Apple-controlled ecosystem.
Market performance leading up to the discussion showed divergent paths for the tech giants. Meta gained almost 30% in the last month, while Apple saw a more modest 2% gain. During premarket trading on a Wednesday session, Meta shares were down 0.11% at $738.00, while Apple shares were up 0.24% at $330.18.
Context and Market Background
Apple’s Services segment has long served as a vital growth engine, diversifying the company away from pure hardware dependence. This division relies heavily on App Store commissions, subscriptions, and services tied directly to iOS devices. However, the rise of advanced artificial intelligence introduces a new paradigm where software agents handle multi-step tasks—such as booking flights, ordering food, or organizing subscriptions—independently.
Bank of America maintained a Buy rating on Apple, citing its strong position in hardware and devices. Even so, the firm flagged a structural risk: AI agents could redirect transactions away from Apple’s ecosystem, altering how consumers discover and pay for digital goods and services.
Sector Impact and Business Implications
While the theoretical threat is clear, market observers are divided on how quickly or severely Meta’s Muse could impact Apple’s balance sheet. CNBC contributor Courtney noted on Wednesday that while the risk is real, it remains uncertain whether Muse will ultimately emerge as the dominant agent in the marketplace. Apple is actively pursuing on-device AI capabilities, while Muse faces stiff competition from OpenAI and other agentic AI platforms.
Furthermore, another contributor questioned the direct overlap between App Store economics and the domains where Meta’s Muse is likely to operate. Apple currently earns commissions on only a portion of App Store activity—primarily gaming and in-game purchases. Conversely, tools like Muse are more likely to handle transactional categories such as food delivery and airline bookings, where Apple does not typically collect commissions.
Despite these distinctions, Meta is aggressively pursuing broader commercial strategies. Highlighting Meta’s enterprise ambitions, a trader on the program pointed to the company’s recruitment of the MongoDB CEO. This executive move suggests Muse could eventually reach further into commercial activity than initially expected, expanding Meta’s AI growth strategy beyond advertising into multi-billion-dollar subscription and transaction potential.
Risks, Limitations, and Uncertainties
Skeptics remain cautious about overstating the immediate danger to Apple. One contributor summarized the prevailing doubt by stating, “Is it at risk? Yeah. Is it Muse who does it? I think that’s that’s the big question,” and adding, “So, I get the thesis, but in practice, I don’t think it actually happens right now.”
Uncertainties persist regarding whether Muse will ultimately emerge as the dominant agent, how quickly Muse could materially disrupt Apple’s Services revenue, and whether Meta will successfully capture that monetization opportunity at scale.
What to Watch Next
Investors and tech analysts will closely monitor how major ecosystem operators deploy agentic AI capabilities over the coming quarters. Key indicators will include how Apple integrates advanced on-device AI to retain user engagement, how aggressively Meta scales Muse and its enterprise initiatives, and whether regulatory bodies intervene in the burgeoning market for autonomous digital transactions.